Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V13_7/V13_752.TXT

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #752

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 752

Today's Topics:
     POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING - FLARE IMPACT EXPECTED
               Re: Solar Flares
       Looking for Unix Utilities to view GRIPS 2 data
        Re: Solar Flares Affecting the Planet?
  Re: Platinum-group metal concentrations in earth-crossing objects
               Re: Solar Flares
                   NASA CDs
      Re: Excavating (mining) gold in the space by NASA.
     Investigation into Olympus satellite failure started

Administrivia:

    Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to
  [e-mail].  Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests,
  should be sent to [e-mail], or, if urgent, to
             [e-mail]

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 15 Jun 91 19:18:15 MDT
From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:[e-mail]> (CARY OLER)
Subject: POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING - FLARE IMPACT EXPECTED
X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"[e-mail]"

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  POTENTIAL SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                               01:00 UT, 16 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


WARNINGS ISSUED OR IN PROGRESS:

  - POTENTIAL MINOR TO MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
  - POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING (PROTON)
  - SATELLITE PROTON AND PCA EVENT ALERT


ATTENTION:

     The major class X12/3B flare of 15 June is expected to produce a minor
to major geomagnetic storm.  The interplanetary shockwave from this flare is
expected to intercept the Earth late in the UT day of 16 June or early in the
UT day of 17 June.  Minor to major geomagnetic storming is expected to
develop.  We are predicting estimated planetary magnetic A-indices of 53 for
17 June, followed by a decrease to approximately 24 for 18 June.

     To aid in the interpretation of the risks involved, the following
probability chart for geomagnetic activity in each of the six main categories
follows below.  The prediction is based on expected activity levels for the
next four days (to 19 June).


GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PREDICTION FOR JUNE 16 - JUNE 19

 ------------------------------------------
|   Activity   | Day1 | Day2 | Day3 | Day4 |
|--------------|------|------|------|------|
| Quiet        |  10% |  05% |  10% |  15% |
| Unsettled    |  40% |  10% |  25% |  40% |
| Active       |  40% |  20% |  35% |  40% |
| Minor Storm  |  10% |  30% |  25% |  05% |
| Major Storm  |  00% |  30% |  05% |  00% |
| Severe Storm |  00% |  05% |  00% |  00% |
|=====================|======|======|======|
|    A-Index : |  17  |  53  |  24  |  15  |
 ------------------------------------------

     So for example, Day 2 represents June 17.  On this day, there is a 05%
probability for quiet geomagnetic conditions, a 10% chance for unsettled
conditions, a 20% chance for active conditions, a 30% chance for both minor
and major storm conditions, and a 05% chance for severe storm conditions.  On
this day, the A-index is expected to reach 53 (which is officially a
low-intensity major storm).  However, there are equal probabilities for minor
to major storming.  Taken together, there is a 60% probability for minor to
major storming, or a 50% probability for active to minor storming, or a
35% probability for major to severe storming.  However, since there is only a
05% chance for a severe geomagnetic storm, conditions are likely to remain
below severe storm levels.  So from this chart, Day 2 will be the most
disturbed day, with only a 15% probability for quiet to unsettled conditions.

     If used properly, this prediction chart can provide valuable information
on potential activity.  You should use it in making your own judgements
regarding the potential activity on these days.

     A Low Latitude Auroral Activity Watch has been issued for the UT day of
17 June.  Conditions may become favorable for low-latitude auroral activity
on this day.

     HF propagation conditions will be poor on 17 June, provided an
interplanetary shock arrives as expected.  If a shock fails to arrive,
conditions will continue at fair to good.  Near complete absorption of radio
signals will continue over the next several days over polar paths.

     There may be an opportunity for some VHF backscatter communications on
the UT day of 17 June, provided we are affected by todays major flare.  If we
are not, no backscatter or other VHF anomalies are likely to be observed.

     Conditions are expected to improve on 18 June.


PLEASE SEND ANY REPORTS OF DEGRADED RADIO PROPAGATION CONDITIONS, SIGHTINGS
OF AURORAL ACTIVITY, VHF BACKSCATTER COMMUNICATIONS OR OTHER ANOMALIES TO:
[e-mail] (INTERNET), [e-mail] (USENET), OR (SNAIL-MAIL)
TO: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL DISPATCH, P.O. BOX 357, STIRLING, ALBERTA, CANADA,
T0K 2E0.  PLEASE INCLUDE THE DATE AND TIME (LOCAL AND UT) OF THE OBSERVATION,
THE APPROXIMATE LATITUDE/LONGITUDE OF THE OBSERVATION LOCATION, AND A BRIEF
DESCRIPTION OF THE PHENOMENA OBSERVED.  WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO TAKE THE TIME
TO SEND IN OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS.


                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

------------------------------

Date: 14 Jun 91 10:19:31 GMT
From: mcsun!ukc!strath-cs!glasgow![e-mail]  (Dr Kevin Waite)
Subject: Re: Solar Flares

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] (Stewart Fleming) writes:
>
> Any reports of actual disturbance from anywhere else on the ground ?
> [We have one (possibly true) story of a Computer Scientist being transformed
> into a Psychologist due to a bit flipping in an admin computer.]
>
I can confirm this report since I am that Computer Scientist/Psychologist!
Moreover, the storm was so severe that as well as changing professions,
the storm has made me more susceptible to junk mail.  I now get all that
psychological junk as well as the computing stuff.  I believe it is the
South Atlantic Anomoly setting up a branch here in Glasgow!

Cheers,
    Kevin

----------------
Psycho-analysis rates on demand.  No loonies please.



--
Email:   [e-mail]  (JANET)
         [e-mail]  (INTERNET)
Address: Dr. Kevin Waite, Department of Computing Science,
         The University, Glasgow,  United Kingdom.  G12 8QQ

------------------------------

Date: 14 Jun 91 19:30:17 GMT
From: news-server.csri.toronto.edu!utgpu!cunews!bnrgate!bigsur!bcars53![e-mail]  (G. Mussar)
Subject: Looking for Unix Utilities to view GRIPS 2 data


I've just recieved the GRIPS 2 CD-ROM from Meridian Data, Inc. which
contains numerous images plus viewing software for MS-DOS, Macs and VMS.
The previous GRIPS disk was supposed to have a number of astronomical
images. This disk doesn't appear to have any astronomical pics but does
have pictures taken from space (of the earth).

At the end of the accompanying booklet they mention that data and programs
were submitted for Unix systems by Delta Microsystems, Lawrence Berkley
Labs and Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory but they didn't have space
to include them on this CD-ROM.

Does anyone know of an FTP site that might have the Unix SW available?


--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gary Mussar  |Internet:  [e-mail]                |  Phone: [phone]
BNR Ltd.     |                                        |  FAX:   [phone]

------------------------------

Date: 16 Jun 91 04:06:25 GMT
From: agate!stanford.edu!neon.Stanford.EDU!Neon![e-mail]  (John McCarthy)
Subject: Re: Solar Flares Affecting the Planet?

In article <9106160352.AA19559@phys> [e-mail] ("Jason Epel [Consultant]") writes:


      It may be more non-scientific based rumor than fact, but I've heard
   that some scientists believe the run on plate disturbances can be
   attributed to the extraordinary solar flare activity we have experienced
   in the past weeks.  There's more to linking the two together than is
   implied, physically speaking such is 'possible' though may as in this
   case be improbable.

      Is there any evidence to make this claim legitimate?  Or are people
   losing all sense of [scientific] reality?

                           -Jason
                           [e-mail]

What are "run on plate disturbances"?  Do they involve
baseball players stealing home?

--
John McCarthy

Congress needs more people who know the difference between a million
and a billion. - John Sununu

------------------------------

Date: 16 Jun 91 00:38:12 GMT
From: cis.ohio-state.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!think.com!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!world![e-mail]  (Robert D Webber)
Subject: Re: Platinum-group metal concentrations in earth-crossing objects

After I posted an article to this group regarding some errors in and
difficulties not mentioned in one of Nick Szabo's postings on extracting
platinides and other materials from an asteroid, I came across the
answer to my own question in another of his postings: the oxygen and water
to be used in processing the metals will come from previously gathered
ice chunks.  To me this makes the scheme seem even less likely, or at
least less predictable, since one has to assume that yet another whole
range of technical problems have been overcome cheaply.

------------------------------

Date: 16 Jun 91 01:13:20 GMT
From: coyote![e-mail]  (John Hughes)
Subject: Re: Solar Flares

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] writes:
>A front page article in the British "Independent" newspaper today warns of the
>dangers of severe magnetic storms (as pointed out by the regular solar flare
>postings on this newsgroup).
>
>The British Geological Survey in Edinburgh reported the detection of the shock
>wave produced by an extra large solar flare.
>
>Any reports of actual disturbance from anywhere else on the ground ?
>[We have one (possibly true) story of a Computer Scientist being transformed
>into a Psychologist due to a bit flipping in an admin computer.]
>
>The article also mentions that international computer networks could be
>affected since they rely on satellites to route me%^#.)*{|{@
>
>STF
>--
>[e-mail]                        ...ukc!cs.hw.ac.uk!sfleming
>[phone] x553
>"I saw Sean Connery eating mushroom soup and watching the Repulican march."

Here in Tucson I heard numerous reports of excess noise from those that do
local data telecomm activities. I also noticed that the noise level jumped
significantly, in some cases causing an immediate disconnect. Perhaps it
has something to with the large number of phone lines we have draped from
poles, instead of being buried.


--
|     John M. Hughes      | "...unfolding in consciousness at the            |
| datalog.com!moondog!jmh | deliberate speed of pondering."  - Daniel Dennet |
| [e-mail]     |--------------------------------------------------|
| [e-mail] | P.O.Box 43305, Tucson, AZ 85733    602-624-8008  |

------------------------------

Date: 15 Jun 91 17:46:30 GMT
From: mips!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!rpi!uupsi!qedqcd![e-mail]  (Mike M. Miskulin)
Subject: NASA CDs

Does anybody have information on how to obtain CDroms of the Voyager, Viking
and other space missions from NASA?

Thanks.

Mike
[e-mail]

------------------------------

Date: 16 Jun 91 11:21:54 GMT
From: agate!spool.mu.edu!think.com!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!mips!ptimtc!nntp-server.caltech.edu!sol1.gps.caltech.edu![e-mail]  (Carl J Lydick)
Subject: Re: Excavating (mining) gold in the space by NASA.

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] (Mary Shafer) writes:
>In article <[e-mail]> G E Derylo
>writes:
>
>   I'm no economist, but wouldn't the introduction of that much gold
>   and platinum into the market *drastically* decrease its value,
>   making this a questionable financial venture? Sure, I know these
>   materials also have crutial industrial applications, so we're not
>   just dealing with jewelry here.
>
>   But we're talking about a cubes of pure gold and platinum 25.53 and
>   53.09 feet on a side respectively. I would think this kind of find,
>   if it were dug up tomarrow in the middle of Nebraska, would do
>   really nastiy things to our gold-based (?) economy.
>
>   Can anyone with some econ background comment on this?
>
>The gold and silver that the Spanish brought back from the New World
>messed up the European economy quite greviously.  Galloping inflation,
>with too much money (precious metals, of course) chasing too few goods.
>This caused a lot of instability, first economic and then political.
>
>The diamond cartel (de Beers) very stringently limits the supply of
>diamonds, to keep the price high.

One thing you've got to remember about gold:  it's not a purely market issue;
it's sort of quasi-religious.  There are so many people out there who think
there's something special about it that even a rumor of a drop in its price
could cause a panic.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carl J Lydick | INTERnet: [e-mail] | NSI/HEPnet: SOL1::CARL

------------------------------

Date: 16 Jun 91 05:42:39 GMT
From: swrinde!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!unix.cis.pitt.edu!pitt!nss![e-mail]  (Bev Freed)
Subject: Investigation into Olympus satellite failure started

14 June 1991

ESA Release #19

INVESTIGATION INTO OLYMPUS SATELLITE FAILURE STARTED

The European Space Agency, ESA, has started an investigation into
the origins of the loss, early on 29 May 191, of orbit and attitude
control of its Olympus satellite.  In parallel, ESA has succeeded in
gaining additional evidence on the status of the spacecraft, thus
improving the chances for recovering the mission in a few weeks.
Olympus is an advanced telecommunications satellite featuring direct
TV broadcasting, distance learning, various business networks and
several other experimental payloads.

As already reported, all services have been interrupted since the
loss of control.  The satellite rotates once every 90 seconds or so,
and it is drifting eastwards at five degrees a day.

Since Olympus continues to send short streams of telemetry data to
Earth, more information on its attitude and the status of its
subsystems has been obtained in the meantime.  The telemetry data
indicate in particular that, for the time being, the solar array is
receiving rays from the Sun at a very oblique angle; in a few weeks
this situation will improve, and it might then be possible to recharge
the batteries and get commands into the satellite.

Because of the present unfavorable orientation of the solar array,
attempts to get commands into the satellite from NASA's high-power
ground station at Robledo near Madrid (Spain) were unfortunately not
successful.

The Enquiry Board set up to investigate the cause of the failure
met for the first time on 11 June 1991 under the chairmanship of
professor Massimo Trella, ESA Inspector General.  It reviewed in
detail the events immediately before and after the loss of control
of the satellite.

For reasons that are still not known and are currently the subject of
a technical investigation, the satellite ceased to point at the Earth
at 0321 hours GMT and went into Emergency Sun Acquisition Mode, which
is an on-board automatic safety procedure that is activated whenever
the satellite loses the Earth reference signal.  In recovering from
the emergency to the normal mode, commands were sent to the
satellite that did not conform to standard procedures.  It appears
that modifications to those procedures had been introduced in an
attempt to have the satellite back in normal mode by 0900 h EST for
the start of broadcasting operations, but instead a sequence of
events was initiated that eventually led to the loss of control.
However, another contributing factor was the technical status of the
satellite: one solar array had not been active since January, and
had the solar generator been fully operational, the spacecraft would
most likely have recovered on its own.

The team specially set up to lead activities to rescue the mission
has started work, and has been analysing all the available data from
the satellite and the conditions on board resulting from the
abnormal attitude and power situation.  At this time, it is believed
that salvaging Olympus might be feasible.  Detailed procedures are
being agreed, and the actual recovery telecommands will be initiated
in a few weeks, when solar illumination will have improved.



--- Opus-CBCS 1.20.17
 * Origin: NSS BBS - Ad Astra! [phone] *HST* (1:129/104.0)
--
Bev Freed - via FidoNet node 1:129/104
UUCP: ...!pitt!nss!freed
INTERNET: [e-mail]

------------------------------

End of SPACE Digest V13 #752
*******************